TCU vs West Virginia

TCU Horned Frogs vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Odds, Analysis, Betting Pick

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Since becoming conference rivals TCU owns the edge on West Virginia, winning four of six meetings outright including a 31-24 decision last season. But the Mountaineers are 4-1 against the spread over the last five meetings, winning twice and twice covering as ‘dogs. West Virginia hosts the Horned Frogs on Saturday afternoon in Morgantown.

 

College football point spread: The Mountaineers opened as 13.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 25.2-15.0 Mountaineers (College football picks on every game)

          

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

TCU just snapped a three-game losing skid with a windy 14-13 victory over Kansas State last week. The Frogs turned an early takeaway into the game’s first touchdown, took a 7-7 tie into the half, then regained the lead at 14-7 in the third quarter. They then allowed the Wildcats to score a touchdown early in the fourth, but Kansas State missed the extra point and TCU hung on from there.

On the afternoon the Frogs got beat along most of the stat sheet but won the turnover battle 3-1.

TCU has actually out-gained four of its last six opponents, and six of nine foes on the season. But it’s lost two games by a total of four points over that span, and the loss to Texas was close, too. At 4-5 overall the Frogs need two wins in their last three games to become bowl-eligible.

 

Why the West Virginia Mountaineers can cover the spread

The Mountaineers just reached 7-1 on the season with a 42-41 victory at Texas last week. In a back-and-forth affair that saw the lead change hands eight times West Virginia found itself down by seven points with two minutes to go. But the Mountaineers drove 75 yards for a touchdown with 16 seconds left, before going for two and the win and got it when quarterback Will Grier ran into the corner of the end zone.

On the day West Virginia amassed 578 yards of total offense, 232 on the ground and 346 through the air.

The Mountaineers have now out-gained seven of their eight opponents this season, and out-rushed five of their last seven foes. They’re also 5-2-1 ATS on the season and 3-1 ATS at home, covering spreads of 33, 15 and 14 points.

At 5-1 in conference play the Mountaineers are tied for first place with Oklahoma, as they quest for their first appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game. West Virginia is also rated No. 9 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings.

 

Smart betting pick

The Mountaineers are the better team, playing the better ball as of late, and they should win this game. However, while teams ranked in the AP Top 25 this season are 126-38 SU against un-ranked opponents, they’re just 69-90-5 ATS. Smart money here takes TCU and the points.

 

College football betting trends

The total has gone under in TCU’s last four games vs. West Virginia.

West Virginia is 5-1 SU in its last six games vs. its conference.

The total has gone under in six of TCU’s last seven games on the road.

 

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